Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Picks of the week

I haven't written anything with a Halloween theme this week, and since there's still a couple minutes left in October, I'll come clean with an evil-ish sort of stat.

My winning percentage for picking high school games last week was an even .666.

Definitely scary. You'd think since I've seen all the teams, I could pick them better than that.

I will this week. Here's the story I'm sticking to:

Paso Robles will walk away with a win over San Luis Obispo — This could be a trap game for the Bearcats and sophomore quarterback Thomas Bernal. The Tigers have a great pass defense and make a living off forcing turnovers. But Paso Robles will have enough speed in the run game to win.

The Greyhounds get right at home against Lompoc — Coming off a disappointing loss, Atascadero will be out to prove its mettle. The Greyhounds will have to prove they can pass someday, but Friday will not be it.

Righetti keeps it rolling at home against Arroyo Grande — There is a potential for the Eagles to take advantage of a letdown after the Warriors' big win over Atascadero, but Arroyo Grande just doesn't seem to have it this year.

Morro Bay will take the LPL title — The Pirates will win the Los Padres League tilt with St. Joseph, which tarnished the showdown with a loss last week. Can anybody block Jerome Long?

Nipomo has the talent to beat Santa Ynez — And when they do, they'll be all alone in third place in the LPL, on track for their first playoff berth in program history.

Templeton ends their span of tough losses against Cabrillo — The Eagles have lost three of four, but tradition says they should have enough pride to end the skid and get back on track.

Coast Union will clinch a winning season by beating Mendota — I have a feeling this might be a defensive affair, and though the Broncos haven't won one of those this season, they do it Friday.

Mission Prep will open their home field in style — Laton is a quality opponent, and QB Dylan Morrow is out for the Royals, but they hung tough without him last week and will do enough to get the win.

North County Christian's fantastic season takes a hit — Who's heart wouldn't root for the Crusaders? But my gut says Cuyama Valley might be too tough.

This is Shandon's last chance to get a win this season — If the Outlaws play as they did against Valley Christian two weeks go, they might get it. If not, things could get ugly.

DON'T FORGET!! If you're going to post, please pick a user name. And as always, keep it clean.

54 comments:

Aaron Crutchfield said...

Atascadero is having a much better week of practice this week. I'm wondering if getting a reality check now instead of in the first round of the playoffs might actually be of benefit.

As for North County Christian... well, Cuyama always has guys approaching or surpassing 300 pounds (who have nothing to do out in the boonies besides play football), which makes a big difference in the eight-man game. I think nearly everyone picks the Bears, but the wild card will be the fact that the Crusaders have shown they can run for 200-plus yards (on an 80-yard field) in one game and pass for 200-plus in another. Although not big, the Crusaders are speedy. The key to the game will be if either they can outrun Cuyama or get Roth just enough time to get the ball to the receivers in the open field and create some one-on-one situations. I'm not saying that North County WILL win... but I'm saying it's possible and that's how it would happen.

South County Bounty said...

St. Joe over Logan Budd
Righetti over Arroyo Grande
Atascadero over Lompoc
SLO over Paso
Santa Ynez over Nipomo
Templeton over Cabrillo

bearcat101 said...

haha, are you kidding me?

Morro bay over st joe
righetti over ag
atascadero over lompoc
Paso over slo
Nipomo over santa ynes
templepleton over cabrillo

theres no way morro bay will fall this late in the season when theyve been on fire these last couple of days, and no way slo will beat paso, may be a close one but slo hasnt more than an average of 16 points a game compared to paso's average of almost 40 points a game. both have about same defense, game to paso. nipomo will beat santa ynes for the last playoff spot in the league, theyre not going to let that slip by them

Homeless Guy said...

That's one way of looking at the SLO game. Another way is SLO hasn't given up more then 19 points to anyone all year. And the 19 was without Zach Thorne. Otherwise its 17 points max. No prediction on a victory for SLO but Paso has no idea what they are in for this Friday. I can't wait.

bearcat101 said...

yes i cant wait either. only way to settle this dispute is watching the game

homeless guy said...

No dispute. We actually like the Paso players here in SLO. They are good kids.

ATOWN!! said...

No dispute. We actually like the Paso players here in SLO. They are good kids.

We know whoever this is, is posing from paso....cuz we all know paso kids aren't good.

BleedsOrangeSweatsGrey said...

Atown beats Lompuke
Spaghetti beats AG (Spaghetti is not coined, and has been used for years to talk about Raghetti)
SLO beats Paso in the battle of the felines.
Morro Bay slides by SJ
Pioneer kills crosstown rival SM
Templeton beats Cabrillo
Santa Ynez pulls out a squeeker over Nipomo.

jean deaux said...

The Morro Bay girls volleyball team shutout St Joseph tonite 3-0.
Most of the MB football team starters (offense and defense) were in the stands - Budd leading cheers - Long leading scoring stomps, then raising the girls above his head after the win. From what I could see, you would be hard pressed to find a tighter set of best friends playing football - anywhere.

homeless guy said...

In JV last night.

SAN LUIS OBISPO 38
paso 7

A-towns JV was much, much tougher.
PS 9th grade tied 21 to 21

I didn't catch what happend in volleyball.

ATOWN!! said...

like I said earlier....scroggin can you please delete comments from the logan budd stalker thanks!!!

PRfan said...

How can anyone ....with any decency at all.. call kids, no matter where they are from ,no good ? You don't know our boys! "Atown " is a fine example of Atrashcadero!

ATOWN!! said...

And paso is a good example of trasho robles!

mbbball said...

morro bay smashed st joe's

bearcat101 said...

well, looks like paso won no problem tonight, scoreboard says a lot less then was real. paso was already up 56-21 so they put in their 3rd string and let slo put up two more scores.
now i cant wait for the grand finaly with atascadero.

Anonymous said...

officially slo and paso combined for over 1000 yards of offense with 52 1st downs and 91 points. Both young Qbs did some really good things for both teams. Thorne for SLO is a stud, 12 tackles 123 yards receiving. Paper was wrong Schultz had 389 yards passing per max preps. Paso has an excellent offensive line. Paso vs Atown for the title and AG vs SLO for the 3rd and final playoff birth. Could it get any better.

homeless guy said...

bearcar101 tell your boys they have a fine team.

Anonymous said...

observations after results of last night,

Morro Bay has the Budd, but Paso is a fine wine that just gets better with age.

How in the world does Righetti lose to AG?? This is why sports are great - kudos to the kids from AG.

Morro Bay was tested by St. Joe's physical line early with St. Joe's line chewing up 3-4 yards alone off the ball early - St. Joe's seemed to go away from the running game a little too early, with their line matching up well physically.

How in the world did St Joe's ever lose to Santa Ynez? St. Joe's vs. Nipomo should be a great game - the Nipomo QB is a quality player, and Nipomo keeps getting better.

Will Morro Bay be tested in the playoffs by a physical running team like Atascadero?

Paso vs. Atascadero a great study in contrasts - 40 and under Atascadero prevails, over 40 then Paso romps. Atascadero can't overcome mistakes as much as Paso will be able to. Predict Atascadero will prevail in a mild upset, they have something to prove and will play with a chip on their shoulder.

You have to watch Morro Bay to appreciate the whole team. They are physical enough but not super physical, however they have exceptional team speed, which wears teams down.

Have changed my opinion - Budd is a legitimate D-1 (but maybe not BCS caliber) player.

Anonymous said...

Hey Scroggins, Why is the CIF Southern Section so big. There are 10 sections and more than 1/3 the schools in the state are in the southern section. It covers the suburbs of Los Angeles,and the counties of Orange, SLO, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Riverside, San Bernadino, Inyo, Mono, and Part of Kern. There are 13 11-man divisions with 388 schools. In Comparison, there is no other section with over 150 schools.
Here are the numbers. Section/schools/divisions.
Northern/51 schools/5 divisions
North Coast/115 schools/5 divisions
San Joaquin/147 schools/7 divisions
San Francisco/7 schools/1 division
Oakland/6 schools/1 division
Central Coast/90 schools/Divs N/A
Central/86 schools/5 divisions
Los Angeles/55 schools/2 divisions
Southern/388 schools/13 divisions
San Diego/87 schools/5 Divisions
Just wondering how they split the sections and why SLO to Ventura can't be a section and OC be its own?

Paso at SLO game watcher said...

A-town listen up........

Paso flat out can't stop the pass.
also, SLO D was missing their first string safety and had a dinged up starting linebacker. That's why Paso got so many big runs. If SLO hadn't had the 3 interceptions they would have beaten Paso.

I'm not partial to SLO, I just happened to be at the game.

SLO had 380 yards passing and Paso couldn't do a thing about it.

Anonymous said...

unfortunately, A-town can't pass

bearcat101 said...

unfortunately half of those yards were against 3rd and 4th stringers. just letting you know

Captain of the Templeton Injured said...

You want my opinion? As much as I hate saying thing, I think Paso is going to kick the crap out of Atascadero. They are way too pissed off from the embarrasing loss last year, and are actually really, really good this year. Sorry A-town, I'll be rooting for you, but...yeah.

paso at slo game watcher said...

Paso can't say that they are proud of giving up 380 yards, including 29 completions against SLO. If you have enough kids on the team to have a 4th string then go play in Div 1. They annonced on the PA system that Atas had scored 51 points and Paso kept trying to run up the score. Well how many points did Atas give up last friday? How many did Paso give up? I can promise you if Paso could have kept SLO to 7 points they would have.

Big Cat '02 said...

I was also at the game on Firday night between Paso And SLO... it could have been a lot uglier than it was. Paso was stopped twice on fourth and goal situations on the the goal line by the SLO defense. If Paso would have converted they would have score 70 points. The final score and passing yards for SLO is very deciving.... SLO's qb threw the ball 49 times...mainly because they were down big in the second half! Once Paso was comfortable with a 35+ point lead the coaches for Paso were wise enough to get all of their first and second string guys out of the game! If anything playing against a team like SLO will make Paso better prepared for the teams in CIF that can Pass. It will not hurt them tis week agaist Atascadero. Anyone who knows anything about football will agree that once you are up by 35+ points all you are doing is trying to not let the other team score too quickly. Slow them down, tackle them in bounds to keep the clock moving and keep your starter healthy. I think that Paso will be very capiable of handling Atascaderos run game. Atascaderos defense will have their hands full not knowing where the ball is going! Paso spreads the ball out as good as any team i have seen in the area in a long time! It will be a great game! Just glad I am a season ticket holder and won't have to be fighting for seating this friday in Paso! Good news for the rest of you.. they are bringing in extra bleachers! Show up early and don't forget... ORANGE IS UGLY! POUND THE HOUNDS!

GO BEARCATS!!!!!

Reality check said...

If Paso beats Atown we will give them credit. But year after year after year we hear Paso will be CIF champs. It's just verbal diarrhea at this point running out of Kitty's mouth. Wipe yourself and shut it until the game is over.

ATOWN!! said...

I agree....because like I keep saying if Atown beats paso it will look soooooooooooooo much more worse than it could have for paso before all the crap talk.

....and yes I could talk crap back to paso...but they all seem to act like a bunch of democrats....who talk, talk, talk....but when they lose then they'll say we cheated some how...or make up some bull S**T excuse....poor losers! :)

ATOWN!! said...

....hey scrogg...how bout you pick early this week so we can go at it early....lol...cool I knew you would

ATOWN!! said...

....hey scrogg...how bout you pick early this week so we can go at it early....lol...cool I knew you would

reality check said...

So true about the Bearkitty's. Wait for the excuses to fly when Paso falls. The refs can't see, that wasn't really a fumble, it was windy, our linebacker was hurt, the coach can't coach, the ball was wet, we ate some bad food, the team had the flu, etc, etc, etc.

Big Cat '02 said...

Wow... the last time i checked Atascadero has only beat us once in the last nine years! Bring your orange and grey so it makes it easier for us to find you and tell you just how wrong you are! Bearcats WILL prevail!

homeless guy said...

Most I've talked to that have played against both Paso and Atas say that Atas has the stronger more physical players that are much faster on defense. Paso sure can score but will they hold up to the stronger and tougher Atas players? If this game goes into the half even Atas should win it.

I don't really care who wins. But I havenoticed that the Atascadero parents/fans seem to be a bit more classy and logical in the discussions.

Anonymous said...

from Calpreps today.

Fri 11/09 Paso Robles (CA) vs Atascadero (CA) at Flamson MS (Paso Robles, CA), 7:30pm
projection: Atascadero (CA) 30-28

ATOWN!! said...

big cat '02-

....you keep referencing the past like it's today....I will admit Atown had bad coaching and obviously wasn't playing well through those years.

BUT the PAST doesn't matter in this weeks upcoming rivalry obviously f**ing idiot....only smart people reading these messages know that historical references don't mean S**T between these 2 teams!

Wait why am I even responding to this stupid comment! LOL

bearcat101 said...

well im not here for trash talk, but just to reveal the trash talking. paso fans have just been saying what happened between slo and paso game. atasc fans are starting to come back and trash talk once again with no real evidence of a win against paso. paso has won 8 out of the last 9 games agains atascadero. the all mighty greyhounds were supposed to go through league undefeated, just look at them now. stats say that the odds go against atascadero right now. just from my point of view.
paso can pass, run, and have many different options to go from. the defense is always fresh and ready to play. if you ever notice theres never a solid 1st string all the time. theres defensive linemen and db's rotating in and out all the time. and the quarterback situation, well it hasnt really made any difference on the scoreboard. paso had alraedy gone through 3 different qb's and each seems to have moved the ball very effectively with any team so far.
i just cant wait to see the game this friday, better show up early or you wont get a great view of the game. GO BEARCATS!!!

oh and to paso at slo game watcher, yes paso cant be proud of givin up that many points to slo, but much rather give up that many to slo rather than the lower scoring offense in the league. take a look at the stats

paso at slo game watcher said...

bearcat101
Point taken. SLO does live on the pass more then most teams. Atas would not be able to pass that much. Actually SLO's fast scores on offense just gave Paso another chance to run on them.

Again, I'm not partial to either North county team. I'm just trying to figure out this matchup. Can't quite make a solid case for either team yet.

ATOWN!! said...

ok bearcat 101 or '02 or whatever...

....your second comment had more depth in it....and all I can say is it's a hard one to pick....I do agree that atown doesn't throw very much which isn't good for this rivalry....sounds like paso is more rounded off because of their passing game...and if paso has a good deep ball atown might get in a little trouble here and there....but I think this game might be determined by the defense on both sides of the ball and maybe clock control....and who will not allow the most amount of points!

Oh well I love the hype going into the game...and the rivalry....I bet it's one of the best all time in the state!

hey scrogg what are doing.... sittin back sippin on your starbucks and eating doughnuts watching us all brawl it out verbally on the Blogg Board...lol....bring out the picks?

Bleeds Orange Sweats Grey said...

I'm really excited for this Fridays game, I'm just bummed we have to play in the Litterbox..and Big Cat '02, I'll be there in my Orange and Grey but you would only need to find me to tell me how right I am. It's a dog eat cat world. GO HOUNDS!!
Oh, and here are the results form the games with similar opponents.

Atown over AG 34-0
Paso over AG 35-14
Advantage Greyhounds

Atown over SLO 15-3
Paso over SLO 56-35
Advantage Paso's offense and A-towns Defense.

Righetti over Atown 21-13
Paso over Righetti 49-23
Advantage Bearcats

Atown over Lompoc 51-14
Paso over Lompoc 30-7
Advantage Greyhounds

Avg points scored in PAC 7
Atown-28.25
Paso-42.5
Advantage Bearcats

Avg points allowed in PAC-7
Atown-9.5
Paso-19.75
Advantage Greyhounds

Record in PAC-7
Atown-3-1
Paso-4-0
Advantage Bearcats.

Cal-preps projection
Atascadero 30, Paso Robles 28
Advantage Greyhounds

Looks like it'll be a really good game and from these stats, looks like Coach Cooper is back on track with the Larry welsh era. This was before Paso won 8 straight. I think we went 18 for 20 against our rivals from the north. Anyways, Orange and Grey all the way.

ATOWN!! said...

NICE

bearcat101 said...

those are some very good points, going down all the different stats and opinions. its pretty evenly matched against both teams.

and looking not just back 9 years or 30, looking back at the all time record im pretty sure paso has more games won than atascadero, i cant quite remember by how many.

whats your opinion scroggin? we need some more feedback from the neutral side so we have more to go from

paso at slo game watcher said...

You guys should agree to one thing in advance.

A win is a WIN.

Even by a single point. No buts, no ifs, no bad refs, no nothing.

It's done on the field.

As an impartial I see the winner of this game the PAC-7 champs. Even if the records are tied 4-1.

The winner of this game is the CHAMPS. Period.

watcher said...

More fuel................

Todays CIFSS coaches poll is out.

NORTHERN DIVISION
1. St. Bonnie
2. Hart
3. Saugus
4. Paso Roble
5. Newberry Park
6. Valencia
7. Oxnard
8. Moorpark
9. Westlake
10 Atascadero

jon doh said...

. . . and then there is the latest CalPreps Power Ratings:

SOUTHERN SECTION

#30 Morro Bay 34.6
#38 Atascadero 33.2
#48 Paso Robles 30.3
#88 San Luis Obispo 21.9
#104 Righetti 19.5
#112 St Joseph 18.3

watcher said...

from the land of stats....or
the land of who cares

SLO had 519 yards of offense and Paso had 574 yards of offense.
SLO had 27 first downs and
Paso had 25 first downs.
SLO pass-383, rush-136
Paso pass-138, rush-436

Oh yea, SLO had 3 interceptions.

Maybe usefull for the arguments for this weeks big North county game, maybe not.

PRbooster said...

Watcher ,your stats are a joke. At what point did you start watching the game ? The 4th quarter? The game was over after the third , the 3rd and 4th string were on the field . You should be proud of your boys for not giving up but your kidding yourself if you think this game was close.....and by the way PR was missing two of their starting Linebackers....you should get over your thumping and start worrying about AG....

watcher said...

How can stats be a joke. They are fact. SLO outplayed Paso in the first half. Was Paso's 3rd string in the game for the first half?

Also, never said this game was closw. A 21 point win is not a close game.

And by the way SLo was missing key players too.

Sounds like your are getting a bit nervous about Atas putting 600 yards on your defense?

I'm sure if Paso looses you will have many excuses.

I AM NO LONGER A NEUTRAL OBSERVER.

GO HOUNDS............

anonymous said...

Paso had an impressive running attack. And Friday's game should be great.
But, SLO's 383 yrds passing was equally impressive. They were missing two (Miller and Turbo) of their four starting wide receivers. Plus, their leading receiver (Rose) was playing with the flu.
Also, last weeks starting running back (MacElnearney) missed the game too.

Anonymous said...

Atascadero wont put up 250 with both of paso's linebackers back and Paso will put up 40 points with one of the best offenses in the entire state no one can stop it but I think atascadero might cause a few problems in the first half until paso gets it rolling in the second half like they have all year

Atown and proud said...

Atascadero's 1st team can easily play 48 minutes and win. According to Paso's claims they only use the 1st and 2nd teams in the first half. After that the 3rd and 4th team come in. So the way I see it Atascadero has the opportunity to beat all 4 of Paso's teams on a single night of football.

Paso should open their own league.
The PAC-4. They could beat on themselves all season long.

Anonymous said...

Serioulsy, prbooster is obsessed with his Bearcats. I wonder what he might do to the Paso players if they lose? Most Paso parents are cool but this guy is just plain wacked.

Beeds Orange, Sweats Gray said...

Just curious, did Atascadero beat Paso last year in Freshman, JV and Varsity?

watcher said...

Thru 9 games

Atas run 3133, pass 612, sum 3745
Paso run 2201, pass 1183, sum 3384

So who really is the offensive powerhouse?

Also Atascadero is easily the better defensive team.

Don't let Paso's scoring totals fool you, they always run up the score. Look at yardage to find the truth.

I predict a Greyhounds victory.

Aaron Crutchfield said...

To answer the question posed about last year's JV and freshmen...

2006
Atascadero varsity 39, Paso 7
Atascadero JV 21, Paso 7
Atascadero freshmen 44, Paso 26

Anonymous said...

Paso tottally thrashed sanluis so called great defense they made them look like a JV team compared to how good pasos offense was