Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Proggin' with Scroggin

You know, Proggin'. As in prognosticating.

Yeah, I know I added an extra "g" — but it's funny though, right?

OK, maybe not. It worked with bloggin'. Hey, Scrog was born to blog.

I'm also 13-5 in two weeks of picking high school football winners. Perhaps proggin' might also be my game.

To hear my picks against the spread FREE on a recorded message call (805) 781-... Kidding. And for the record, I admonish gambling of any sort.

To the anonymous poster that asked about the CIF-Southern Section's size. I put in an e-mail to the state office and hope to have some feedback soon.

To atown!! and bearcat101: On with the picks and a little of my opinion on the Paso Robles-Atascadero game.

I'm going with Paso Robles — I picked the Bearcats at the beginning of the season because it looked like they had more experienced skill players back from the year before. Though Atascadero looks to have more than capably filled a lot of the holes made by graduating seniors, little has happened this season to prove one team is especially better than the other.

Both teams have had a few ugly moments. Both have looked utterly dominant as well.

Honestly, the game might be too close to call, but since I have to pick one, I'll go with my initial selection, Paso Robles.

That doesn't mean the Greyhounds are worthless. I could easily see Atascadero winning the game. Here's how I see either team running away with it.

For Atascadero to win: The Greyhounds will have to be able to run the ball FOR SCORES against the Bearcats defense. Long drives and time off the clock means less without getting the ball in the end zone. See: Atascadero's game against San Luis Obispo. On defense, the Greyhounds will have to rattle cucumber cool sophomore QB Thomas Bernal somehow. He passed at will against Arroyo Grande and ran at will against the Tigers. Atascadero might have the defense to limit him from doing both. As long as they keep Bernal, Nathan Nelson and Co. from rattling off quick scores, the Greyhounds have a good shot at winning.

For Paso Robles to win: The Bearcats will have to score early and often. If they can get a mutli-score lead, they can get the Greyhounds into passing situations — where they've looked the least comfortable this season. On defense, Paso Robles has to bend but not break. They can give up rushing yards, but they can't let Nick Tenhaeff break free for 30-plus-yard touchdown runs. The Bearcats also have to be able to pass and run. Atascadero might be the best defensive team Paso Robles has played all season. The Bearcats won't be able to be one-dimensional.

Of course, none of that stuff could happen. Or we could get a mixed bag and someone wins off a last-second hail Mary or — don't cringe to remember this Greyhounds fans — a non-called knee touching down at the end zone on a kickoff that gets returned for a touchdown.

I'm rooting for neither team, but a close game would be a lot more fun to cover.

As for the rest of the games: I'm going with San Luis Obispo over Arroyo Grande, Morro Bay over Santa Ynez, Templeton over Santa Maria and St. Joseph over Nipomo. And I'll go out on a limb and predict both Coast Union and North County Christian will win first round playoff matches on the road.

45 comments:

Anonymous said...

I heard some key player on Paso is out for this game.

Also, No one in the PAC-7 has won a game the week after playing SLO.

Paso may suffer from the post SLO blues.

Anonymous said...

No bulletin board material from me but yes my sources tell me the same thing, one of PR's main players in out this week. I've seen crazy stuff over the years so this is anybodys game.

Anonymous said...

An AG victory might pit them against Bonnie in the 1st round, last time that happened was in 2002 and AG scared the **** out of Bonnie at Santa Barbara city college. AG was 1-3 in league and played Bonnie with their stud TB Lewis tough for 3 quarters before falling 35-20, Bonnie went on to win the division.

Anonymous said...

SLO played Bonnie in 2004 in the 3rd round and lost 28-21. Let's hope SLO wins on friday as they will do a better job against St. Bonnie then AG can.

ATOWN!! said...

I like your analysis scrogg!

and I hope all teams from the area do well in the playoffs....and beat the crap out of their opponents

big cat '02 said...

A SLO vs ST. Bonnie game would be a great match up! I just hope slo can get past AG and stay heathly enough to give St. Bonnie a tough game!
I would be nice to see all of our local teams do well in the playoffs! Atascadero or Paso would be a tough number two seed in the playoffs for anyone!

Aaron Crutchfield said...

If AG were to face St. Bonaventure, it would be a better game than a lot of people would think. The Seraphs can be run on, to a rather surprising degree. Atascadero put up 287 rushing yards against them. The difference would be that AG wouldn't be able to stop the St. Bonaventure offense. Darrell Scott is a lot like Reggie Bush in that if the linemen or linebackers don't get him stopped within the first couple of yards, it's a certain six points. Also, Tony Macarena is fairly accurate at quarterback and has a lot of weapons to throw to. The Seraphs would get out to an early lead and I don't think AG would be able to catch up.

Anonymous said...

Ye of little knowledge .......

First,Bonnie would destroy SLO this year, and yes, I was at the 2004 game .......

Second, THe second seed in the Pac-7 will get beat in the first round if they get matched up with the Foothill or Marmonte #2.

If Paso gets by Atown and I say if again, Paso will get the #3 seed in the division and have a decent ride to the semi's.

The top 3 in the Foothill are monsters along with Bonnie, PR is the only Pac-7 team that has the offensive fire power to stay with those teams.

When you have questions plaease ask the expert!

Anonymous said...

Tony will leave Bonnie after the seqason and head for Santa Clara where he will play his senior season.

Only way to beat Bonnie is to score 40+ points and there is only one team in the Pac-7 that can generate that type of scoring power, beed I say more?

big cat '02 said...

Hey Scrog... do you know when the selection show is scheduled for... CIF usually announces the seedings on Sunday right?
Anyone have any guess how the brackets will brake down this year?

big cat '02 said...

If the number 2 seed in the PAC-7 get lucky enough to face the number two seed line the Channel league it would be a huge breack for the PAC 7! How is all of it decided?

Anonymous said...

There are only 4 true seeds, after that it is speculative. If at all possibe 1's vs 3's and 2 vs 2's with the one exception for the #4 Marmonte who may or may nor get Bonnie. Seeing Boonie is in the Channel Boonie and #1 seed in the division they can't play #3 Channel in Rd #1. The 4th place Marmonte is better than the #3 Pac View so I would think Bonnie will get the Pac View #3 in th Rd #1.

That means that the #1 Foothill (Saugus or Hart) will be the #2 division seed and thus would get the #3 Pac-7.

Paso if they beat Atown will be the #3 seed for the division and would probably get the #3 CHannel.

The #4 division seed (Hart or Saugus would probably get the #4 Marmonte.

After that it gets really speculative and the 2's vs 2's would be parred by power ratings more than likely.

I've done this for years and I'm not to far off.

Hope you followed it ......

Anonymous said...

I would rather see the Tigers play St. Bonnie. It may be a nearly impossible game to win but playing St. Bonnie is an honor. The Tigers have one senior on their team this year that played against St. Bonnie as a freshman in 2004.

AG would love the chance to go up against St. Bonnie also. AG v SLO is a great game with the prize trip to St. Bonnie and a chance to tackle a future NFL running back.
How cool is that.

Anonymous said...

Bonnie will get the #3 Pac View unless Rio Mesa beats Camarillo (unlikely) in which case Bonnie could get the Pac-7 #3 ......

Don't hold your breath for the honor

PAC-7 fan said...

Paso vs Atas.
Both teams play hard but please come out of this game healthy. I would love to see both of you win your first round of the playoffs. I'n not part of your rivalry but I am part of this County. Don't kill each other over this. Play a clean game. Come out healthy and go far in the playoffs.

Anonymous said...

A big Amen to that!

pac-7 fan said...

10:50 am

Does the expert have a blog name?

From what I've read here, anonymous belongs to too many bloggers for you to claim it as a name. Tell us who you are so we can decide if you are an expert as claimed.

Anonymous said...

Experts are known by their keen knowledge not their names, meow!

pac-7 fan said...

Expert. Then who's the Senior Tiger that played against St. Bonnie in the 3rd round CIF playoff in 2004?

see 2nd 1:11 pm message

Joshua D. Scroggin said...

Ooh, ooh! I know! I Know!

haha.

Really, I do.

Anonymous said...

The game was at Pacifica High school in Oxnard. The game was close but Bonnie shut down SLO in the second half as John Mack normally does to every team.

BTW, you are talking about Hodgson

pac-7 fan said...

Nope. You are wrong. Hodgson graduated before that game.

Expert??? I don't know about that.

Anonymous said...

Yhats right we graduated in 2004 so he couldn't of played .......

But, were you at the game like I was?

Real fans support their league just not their team

pac-7 fan said...

Yep. I was there. It went down to almost a brawl at the end. Probably sour grapes from SLO. But to their credit SLO played hard and was physically and emotionally drained after the game.

Expert. Read my comments, I absolutely support all the PAC-7 teams. I'll even pull for AG if they beat SLO.

Anonymous said...

If you recall there were fans from many other schools in the division cheering on SLO so the great demon (Bonnie) could finually be defeated .....

pac-7 fan said...

Didn't happen though. That's why we need Paso and Atas to come out of this weeks game healthy. We can send SLO (or AG) first round to beat on Bonnie a bit then Paso or Atas can finish them off later in the playoffs. It could be a PAC-7 tag team effort to fall the great St. Bonnie.......

Beercat said...

You mean send SLO or AG for the token sacrafice :O

Don't forget about Hart & Saugus, solid teams this year .....

Beercat said...

There, I gave away my idenity ..

ATOWN!! said...

LMAO....this is funny S**T

pac-7 fan said...

beercat.

Being a token team is something that SLO or AG will gladly take. We were humbled by both Paso and Atas. What can a team do but get on with life. But since you and the Hounds will definitaly make the playoffs I want to one of you do something with it. No first round losses allowed.

ATOWN!! said...

"THE DAY" has finally arrived! lol

Beercat said...

Yes, it's "pound the hounds" day .........

Or is it, "feed the cats to the rats" day ...........

Beyond those words this CAT won't say anything else on fear of bulletin board material ....

Cut and paste the following link ..

http://www.geocities.com/jerrydallons/cattied.jpg

big cat '02 said...

Starting to feel that game day rush come over me like i am back in school getting ready for the big game! Can't wait til kick off! Let the tailgating begin!
GO BEARCATS!!!
Pumped up for this one!

bearcat101 said...

i can remember back when i played in this game, its such a exciting feeling. cant wait for the game to start.

GO BEARCATS!!!!!!!!

ATOWN!! said...

I'm feelin the same....Im going to the JV game just to make sure I get a seat!

Beercat said...

I went down at noon and put my blankets on some seats, many seats had blackets already on them .....

Standing room only .....

ATOWN!! said...

...guess i'll be moving blankets...that sucks!

Anonymous said...

You guys should know that THE Morro Bay High School is the only undefeated team in the county, is ranked high in the state than both Atascadero and Paso Robles according to MaxPreps.com, and posts a #2 CIF Southern Section ranking.

Numbers don't lie kids.

Anonymous said...

Oh, we didn't know that............

Anonymous said...

By the way, the SLO senior who played against St. Bonaventure his freshman year is Jason Fitzsimmons.

Beercat said...

The team that wanted it more won, great win Atown! Time for the playoffs ......

1. Atown
2. PR
3. SLO

Best of luck to all ....

pac-7 fan said...

Great win for Atas. Congrats.
Paso no worries. We all know the number 2 seed is magical.
SLO finally had a feel good game.

Beercat said...

Yes in the recent past the #2 seed got a better draw than the #1 seed .....

Bleeds Orange Sweats Gray said...

Just got home from the rivalry game and all the trash talk is over for this year...well, it's never over. The better team won. Huge props to Paso because that game was everything it was supposed to be. Great game Greyhounds and congratulations on a back-to-back league championship and a number one seed from the PAC-7. ORANGE AND GRAY ALL THE WAY!!!
GO HOUNDS!!

bearcat101 said...

I have to admit, great game, lived up to expectations, props to atascadero from a paso fan, seems like no dirty play. I just wish i could relive moments like those, whether they were glorious in victory, or dreadfulness of a getting beat.